There is much panic today about falling birthrates. Two thoughts:
Falling birthrates are only a problem because of the fundamental lie at the heart of all social welfare systems: That the money taxed away from you is stored and then given back to you. It’s not; it is spent on immediate needs. This lie works so long as there are more people being taxed than people who need support. It doesn’t work when the ratio goes the other way. When that happens (it has never happened before, lucky for the state), the state needs to find extra money outside the social welfare system. Lots of it; or the system goes bankrupt. That’s the panic: The state may be forced to renege on its promises, or impose draconian taxes and spending cuts. Either way, the state’s legitimacy is at risk.
Countries are trying to boost fertility through various monetary means, but it won’t work. Lack of money is not why fertility is falling. It’s the screen. In 2009 – 15 years ago – I wrote a paper called “Fertility and Virtual Reality.” There, I predicted that humanity’s journey into virtual reality would reduce birthrates. VR is designed to satisfy longings, and it does this in two ways. First, it provides for them directly. That’s porn. Second, it provides other sources of satisfaction such that a longing isn’t perceived. That’s adventure, camaraderie, achievement, competition, and the whole host of feelings that the real world does not provide most people but the virtual world does in abundance.
Let’s not forget class. The elites contribute almost nothing to national fertility. Fertility effects are the domain of young-ish normies. For average people, games, social media, and the videosphere provide far better feelies than the real world. Starship Captain or Starbucks Barista: Which would you choose?
Now consider Starship Captain vs Unmarried Starbucks Barista With a Kid. Or Medieval Baron vs Office Max Assistant Manager with Wife and Three Kids. I know what I would choose, but I’m a nutcase Catholic. Nones and SBNRs (Spiritual But Not Religious) have no such dogmatic reason to do family.
Fertility will continue to collapse.
A) Humanity will continue its exodus to the virtual world, even if the real world remains the same. Technology, and applied entertainment psychology, are improving every year, every month, every day.
B) The real world will get worse. Partly because of the exodus, the state won’t meet its obligations. AI will do its thing. There will be no UBI to save the situation; in an atmosphere of collapsing social welfare systems, there won’t be many votes for sending even more taxes to the government, to redistribute to everyone regardless of need or effort. Inequality will worsen. Ever more young people will see only meaningless, empty futures.
That’s what’s going to happen. What will you do?
Words and Games 